Risk-Adjusted DCA for Crypto

Discover Stress-Free investing and improve your returns with Risk-Adjusted DCA.

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You can't predict the market.
Neither can we.

But we can make sense of the present. That's how we're taking DCA to the next level.

AlphaSquared Investing Feature

Stress-free investing

Stay objective and make confident decisions when it matters the most by sticking to your personal Risk Strategy.

What is risk?

A score between 0 and 100 representing the market’s pulse.
Computed by machine learning, our Risk Model distills vast
market data into an easy-to-understand score.

Note! We do not retrofit any data. Risk levels calculated daily since 2021 remain unaltered historically.

Key benefits of AlphaSquared

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Clarity

Effortless and objective - Let our Risk Model do all the heavy lifting

Performance

The risk-adjusted DCA strategy is proven to outperform regular DCA since 2021

Confidence

Should I take profits? Stay confident with Risk-adjusted DCA and Risk-alerts

Worry less.
Accumulate more.

Test how Risk-based DCA drastically improves your returns and BTC accumulation.

Strategy
An aggressive strategy invests up to higher risk, while conservative does the opposite.
Investment
Total strategy investment. Low risk generally means frequent investments; high risk pauses investments.
Balance
Your final wealth measured in both the asset and in USD. The price of the asset at 'End date' may greatly affect this value.
Profit
The profit of the strategy in percentage and in dollars.
Reward/Risk
Profit earned per unit of risk taken. High values indicate strategies that maximize profits efficiently while minimizing risk. Formula: Total profit / Total risk exposure.
Risk-Adjusted DCA -
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Regular DCA -
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The minds behind

Initially, the Risk Model was in our private toolbox. What began as an experiment in exploiting risk identification, rather than predicting prices, yielded impressive results.

Seeing the potential for a much wider application in finance than we initially anticipated, we felt compelled to share it with the world.

Alessandro Parini

Alessandro Parini

Economist

University of Basel

Co-founder

Axel Wikner

Axel Wikner

BA & Data Scientist

NTNU

Co-founder

AlphaSquared Investing Feature

The Risk Model

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Real-time calculation & notifications

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Analyzed and trained on price,
sentiment, volatility, on chain, macroeconomics,
black swan events, and more

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Stress-tested of hundreds on potential market
scenarios using simulations

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Proven track record since 2021

Get started for free

Try for free
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Pobelmads Verify review

"The BTC Risk Metric alone has easily paid for the lifetime membership 100 times over."

Free trial

Free
14 day trial
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Free trial includes

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Access to BTC, ETH, SOL and many more.

Check icon Risk Notifications

Get notified of risk level changes

Check icon Strategy Backtesting

Test with historic data

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Access live risk levels

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Yearly plan

33% total savings
$13.25
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Regular price: $16.59 Save 20%
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Plan includes

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Access to BTC, ETH, SOL and many more.

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Get notified of risk level changes

Check icon Strategy Backtesting

Test with historic data

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Access live risk levels

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Limited time offer - Lock in this special rate now!

Lifetime Plan

$799
Single Payment
Regular price: $999 Save 20%
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Lifetime plan includes

Check icon Risk Models

Access to BTC, ETH, SOL and many more.

Check icon Risk Notifications

Get notified of risk level changes

Check icon Strategy Backtesting

Test with historic data

Check icon API Access

Access live risk levels

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Single payment, lifetime benefits.

Still in doubt?

Everything you need to know about the product and billing. Can’t find the answer you’re looking for? Feel free to chat with us.

How is the Risk Model calculated?

Multifactorial Design & Input Variables
The Risk Model is multifactorial, meaning it considers a vast amount of market factors and data points to compute the risk. Some key attributes include asset growth models for capturing asset-specific patterns, regression to model time and seasonality, and traditional TA metrics for price-based classification.

Self-Adjusting Mechanism
The model is self-adjusting, updating and refining itself daily as new data becomes available. This continuous improvement enhances its accuracy and confidence level over time. The algorithm is powered by a range of techniques including data analysis, statistical modeling, and automation.

Historical vs. Live Data
It’s crucial to understand that while the algorithm improves daily, the historical risk levels reflect the data shown on our live risk meter for each specific day. The model is not retrofitted or predictive; it classifies the current price on a daily basis.

Naturally, the exact mathematical components of our model remain proprietary. However, you can dive a lot deeper into its build, input variables, and other attributes in our whitepaper.

How can I be sure your models work?

Our Bitcoin model has been live since mid-2021 and has consistently shown very convincing results since. The historical data you see is not backfitted; it is the actual risk calculated on that day. You can use our strategy builder to backtest based on this real data to see performance.

In addition to real-world performance, all our models go through a 3-step framework. It involves dataset optimization, backtesting and benchmarking against other strategies, and finally forward-and stress-testing.

AlphaSquared is the only platform in the crypto space currently offering forward-testing capabilities using simulations. You can try these in the strategy builder.

Does the Risk Model predict the top?

No. The model does not predict what will happen in the future, as history has proven that predicting market movements is not productive. Instead, the uniqueness of it lies in its ability to tell you what is happening right now.

The model computes the current market risk with high precision. This means that whenever the market is overheated or oversold, the model will inform you. It cannot tell when in time that will occur. Being a macro model, this gives you more than enough time to either calmly DCA out of the market and take profits, or reduce your investments. This same principle also applies to major bottoms.

How do I use the Risk Model?

In short, you invest more when the risk is low, and less when the risk is high, or take profits if you wish. This earns you more BTC per dollar invested and reduces your risk. Watch tutorials in our knowledgebase.

You can follow pre-constructed strategies available in the member dashboard, or create your own strategy which is suited to your personal risk tolerance and goals.

Why share the model if it works so well?

Since the model is built for long-term gains and not for speculative trading, there’s no conflict of interest in sharing it.

Risk-Adjusted DCA is not a get-rich-quick scheme, nor is the risk model a magic buy/sell indicator that guarantees instant wealth. Instead the model helps disciplined investors with realistic time horizons improve long-term gains while reducing the emotional stress of investing.

We believe in helping other investors benefit from the same disciplined, realistic approach we've used ourselves for years.

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